1 List of model covariates:

2 Gestation duration

2.1 Overall

2.2 Above 42 GW

Number of births >= 42 GW
clim_cohort 42 43
Eden 4 0
Pelagie 13 7

All seems OK with LMP dates, DOB, etc

3 Preterms

3.1 Overall

Number of preterms per center
clim_center preterm
Brittany 123 (3.7%)
Grenoble 20 (4.3%)
Nancy 55 (5.7%)
Poitiers 53 (5.8%)

3.2 By season

Number of preterms per center
clim_center Winter Spring Summer Autumn
Brittany 28 (3.4%) 30 (3.8%) 36 (4%) 29 (3.7%)
Grenoble 8 (5.6%) 4 (4.2%) 2 (2%) 6 (4.5%)
Nancy 9 (5%) 11 (5.1%) 21 (6.2%) 14 (6.3%)
Poitiers 17 (6.5%) 9 (5.1%) 14 (7%) 13 (4.7%)

4 Models with no exposure

4.1 PTB (logistic regression)

4.2 Gestation duration (time to event model)

With censorship at 37 GW

5 Mean exposure description

5.1 Distributions

Temperature indicator distributions of all daily points for the backward model

5.2 Correlation temperature HR

All daily points of women included in the cohort

Spearman correlations between mean humidity and temp:

cohort cor
Eden -0.51
Pelagie -0.36
Sepages -0.47

6 SD exposure description

6.1 Distributions

Weekly temp and SD for all women included in the study

6.2 Correlations

All daily points of women included in the cohort

Spearman correlations between mean humidity and temp SD:

cohort cor
Eden 0.06
Pelagie 0.09
Sepages 0.34

7 Mean VS SD

7.1 Temperature

cohort cor
Eden -0.07
Pelagie -0.14
Sepages 0.14

7.2 Relative humidity

cohort cor
Eden -0.47
Pelagie -0.38
Sepages -0.11

8 Gestation duration vs temperature descriptive

8.1 PTB vs temp

By trimester:

8.2 Gestation duration

9 Multivariate model outputs (time to event)

Time to event with censorship at 37 gw

9.1 Forward

9.1.1 Parameter tuning (AIC)

df_var df_lag t_mean rh_mean t_sd rh_sd
2 2 4534.3 4537.3 4536.1 4537.7
2 3 4537.3 4538.2 4530.9 4541.1
2 4 4540.5 4542.1 4534.2 4531.4
2 5 4544.5 4544 4530.2 4535
2 6 4547 4545.5 4534 4538.6
3 2 4537.1 4540 4539.2 4541.2
3 3 4539.7 4543.2 4535.1 4545.5
3 4 4544.2 4548.8 4539.5 4537.5
3 5 4547.6 4552.5 4536.8 4541.6
3 6 4552.4 4556 4542.1 4547.2
4 2 4541.1 4543.8 4537.7 4544.4
4 3 4545.3 4548.8 4535.8 4551
4 4 4551.7 4556.3 4536.7 4544.5
4 5 4556.9 4559.2 4536 4550.4
4 6 4562.9 4565.9 4543 4555.5
5 2 4542.3 4545.9 4535.3 4546.5
5 3 4547.3 4552.3 4536.6 4549
5 4 4552.6 4561.8 4539.3 4545.4
5 5 4558.5 4566.3 4540.2 4553.3
5 6 4563.4 4574 4549.1 4560.3
6 2 4545.7 4542.4 4536.5 4548.5
6 3 4549.4 4550.4 4538.2 4552.2
6 4 4556.6 4560.9 4543.1 4551.1
6 5 4563.2 4566.4 4544.1 4556.8
6 6 4568.3 4572.9 4554.5 4564.5

9.1.2 Outputs

9.1.2.1 Mean weekly temperature

Hazard ratio:

Dose response projections:

Lag projections:

9.1.2.2 Mean weekly relative humidity

Hazard ratio:

Dose response preojections:

Lag projections:

9.1.2.3 SD weekly temperature

Hazard ratio:

Dose response projections:

Lag projections:

9.1.2.4 SD weekly relative humidity

Hazard ratio:

Dose response projections:

Lag projections:

9.2 Backward

9.2.1 Parameter tuning (AIC)

df_var df_lag t_mean rh_mean
2 2 4518.3 4521.4
2 3 4522.3 4518.6
2 4 4524.8 4522.4
2 5 4523.9 4523.8
2 6 4525.8 4527.4
3 2 4522.1 4524.2
3 3 4528.1 4523.3
3 4 4532.3 4528.7
3 5 4532.3 4532.2
3 6 4533.4 4537.3
4 2 4523.8 4527.9
4 3 4530.1 4527.9
4 4 4535.5 4533.2
4 5 4536.7 4538.5
4 6 4540.2 4545.2
5 2 4522.1 4530.2
5 3 4528.5 4532.2
5 4 4536.1 4538.6
5 5 4536.6 4545.1
5 6 4541.8 4551.6
6 2 4525 4530.1
6 3 4531.8 4534
6 4 4539.4 4542.1
6 5 4542.7 4550.5
6 6 4549.2 4556.3

9.2.2 Output

9.2.2.1 Mean daily temperature

Hazard ratio:

Projections:

Cumulative:

9.2.2.2 Mean daily relative humidity

Hazard ratio:

Projections:

Cumulative: